These climate models allow scientists to simulate different responses, such as how the ocean might continue to warm, where ice melts and major ice sheets dynamically respond, and where and how the additional water disperses around the world’s ocean and affects circulation patterns. Sea level rise scenarios are generally based upon climate model outputs. They also show how sea level rise might occur globally and locally. Sea level rise scenarios are used to communicate how much sea level rise could occur, under what circumstances, and by when. Sea level rise scenarios, also called Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) scenarios, represent possible future sea level changes in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ocean and atmospheric warming, allowing people to consider future impacts and responses and ask ‘what if?’ questions about the future to support planning and decision-making. What are the sea level scenarios and how were they formulated? Updated scenarios of global and regional sea levels out to the year 2150,Ī focus on the near-term time period using observation-based trajectories out to the year 2050Ī new national gridded set of Extreme Water Level (EWL) probabilities that illustrate how the frequency of NOAA minor, moderate, and major high tide flooding events will change in frequency out to year 2050 (See the Section on Observation-Based Extrapolations and Extreme Water Levels).ģ. There are three main components in the 2022 Technical Report: The information in the report is intended to inform coastal communities and others about current and future sea level rise to help contextualize its effects for decision making purposes. Army Corps of Engineer, along with partners in academia. It is the latest product from the Task Force, which includes the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. states and territories, out to the year 2150. This report provides the most up-to-date sea level rise scenarios, available for all U.S. In 2022, the Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force produced a Technical Report titled "Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. What is the Technical Report and what is contained in it? The first of these technical reports was released in 2017 with a recent update and new Technical Report in 2022.Ģ. One of the main outputs of the Task Force are Technical reports providing future sea level information for the coastlines of the U.S. A goal has also been to incorporate those products into user-friendly mapping, visualization, and analysis tools made easily accessible through existing agency portals serving specific partners and stakeholders, as well as interagency venues such as the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the U.S. The goal of the Task Force, since its inception, has been to develop the necessary products through sustained and coordinated participation of key agencies, based on the best available science, including regional science and expertise when possible and appropriate. coastline, coordinated across the relevant Federal agencies, to serve as a starting point for on-the-ground coastal preparedness planning and risk management activities. This was in recognition of the strong need and demand for authoritative, consistent, accessible sea level rise and associated coastal hazard information for the entire U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), the Subcommittee on Ocean Sciences and Technology (SOST), and the National Ocean Council (NOC). The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force was jointly convened at the direction of the White House Resilience Council, in 2015, under the U.S.
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